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www.龙8国际.com:众创空间阴云密布:未来10个月将死掉一大片

  2016-06-03 09:26  来源:www.龙8国际.com腾讯大豫网  我来投稿  我要评论

www.龙8国际.com,  经过法庭上的一番质证与辩论,2016年10月20日,阜南县法院最终判决确认被告阜南县住建局将农用地选址作为生活垃圾填埋场使用的行政行为违法,并责令被告在2018年12月31日前,完成对涉案垃圾填埋场的无害化处理,并修复区域生态环境。这一批示范县,创新农村职成教育发展模式,加快农村职成教育现代化建设,不仅可以把现代的技术、生活方式以及经营理念导入农村,提高农业生产效益和农产品竞争力,而且可以在农村催生新业态、新模式,为农村经济发展灌注新动能,为实现农业现代化提供坚实的人才保障。他退休前在荔湾区某小学教自然科学。如果持续存在并增大,才需要考虑有卵巢囊性肿瘤的可能性。

tb乐虎娱乐,我们希望选举能够依法、有序、顺利地进行,当然我们也相信,香港一定能选出一位爱国爱港、中央信任、有管治能力、港人拥护的行政长官人选。全部犯罪包括能够查明具体诈骗数额的事实和能够查明发送诈骗信息条数、拨打诈骗电话人次数、诈骗信息网页浏览次数的事实。  谈及开餐馆的初衷,毛鲲说,他其实并不完全是为了挣钱。说着,女儿也满脸泪花,紧紧抱着妈妈大声哭起来。

www.龙8国际.com,(记者崔巍)(责编:汤诗瑶、陈苑)谢谢。“影响企业家预期的,有市场需求变化和行业发展变革等客观经济性因素,但当前企业家最关心的是制度环境。”同时,保障房的分配上也在力推职住平衡,以自住房为例,开始推进“区域优先”,本区户口或工作优先销售,避免保障房家庭因为职住不平衡带来的交通难题。

  创业项目优选 好项目来A5招商 ,点击入驻!

  “爱扎堆”或是国人天性。众创空间这个门槛并不高的行业如今挤满了人头攒动的竞争者,创立之初曾被顶礼的差异化开始走向趋同的反面。

  根据权威研究数据显示,2015年上半年,我国较有规模的众创空间不足70家,而随着国家及地方一系列政策的扶持以及“双创”热潮席卷,如今已有超过1.6万家众创空间在全国各地“开花”。而专门跟踪这一趋势的 Deskmag网站的公开数据显示,中国在联合办公领域一年间发展的数量已远远超出全球总数。

  当前,国内大多数众创空间以“二房东”模式呈现。租一处房子,简单装修,招揽一些创业团队,提供零星创业服务,收取租金和服务费,就可打出联合办公、孵化器旗帜,一路呐喊“已在风口”。

  有媒体报道,2016年全国两会上,由民进中央提交的《关于引导众创空间健康发展的提案》指出,目前行业存在一哄而上、制度不完善、评价体系不完善和创新创业环境不足的四大问题。并警示,“这些问题可能导致‘众创空间’热潮‘昙花一现’,客观上浪费财政投入、社会资源,打击社会公众对‘双创’的信心”。

  民进中央提案指出,“一些地区70%以上初创项目3个月内即注销退出,转化为小微企业的不足 10%。而且同质化严重,项目缺乏技术创新和科学商业发展模式,导致创业人才聚集难、初创项目发展难,成长性及带动性差。”

  从去年年底,便有“众创空间随资本入冬”的声音传出。2016年春节刚过,深圳一家众创空间地库因入不敷出关门,而北京中关村地区也倒闭了一批孵化器。4月初,深圳老牌孵化器孔雀机构因拖欠大房东租金被强拆,部分入驻孔雀机构的创业者在短短几天内连续遭遇了办公室被物业强拆、驱逐的恶性场面。

  2016 年或将迎来众创空间的整合并购年:没人、没钱、没个性、没背景,对不起,请出局!

  周令强是一家小广告公司的负责人,上个月刚刚把自己的公司从普通的写字楼搬出,进入了一家众创空间。“我们公司规模小,在这里办公,图的是房租便宜。”

  周令强对记者表示,自己不是创业者,但自己的房东却是!他搬入的这家众创空间,是一个创业型项目,被科技部列入第二批国家级众创空间,里面入驻了多个行业、不同发展阶段的中小团队,并没有明确定位和入驻条件。空间内除了提供工位和会议室等基础服务外,还能提供一些简单的诸如工商注册、投融资中介服务,“除了环境差点,和其他写字楼没什么区别,空间的收入主要靠房租,还有政府补贴”。

  这是典型的国内众创空间们的缩影。

  艾瑞的数据显示, 目前场地的提供仍然为众创空间、孵化器们的主流服务,占比为81.2%,同时有28.4% 的孵化器为政府主导型,资金主要源于政府的扶持。从盈利点来看,租金仍是主要的收入来源,其次是提供办公服务收取费用以及未来潜在的物业增值。

  这成为联合办公产业的主要隐患之一。RocketSpace 的创始人Duncan Logan 指出, 许多的空间运营商把收取租金作为主要盈利模式。其风险存在于经济环境的不确定性,经济大环境下会有不错收益,倘若遇上经济环境恶劣,难免收成不好。

  不少众创空间因缺乏核心竞争优势,同质化严重,最终只能靠出租工位和领取政府补贴维持生存。协纵策略管理集团有限公司董事黄立冲认为,在众创空间、商务中心等联合办公产品中,就商业模式和盈利模式而言,最不成熟的是众创空间。“从业者可能在众创空间中亏损最大。但这个领域又恰恰是最盲目和最过热领域。领域迈入门槛低,创业环境又不成熟,因此,大部分的众创空间在中国如果不依靠政府补贴根本无法生存。”

  摩客空间执行总经理季宇晔也表示,在部分二三线城市,有的众创空间免费使用都租不出去,而获取补贴甚至是一些“众创空间”真正目的。“业内普遍关注政府优惠政策和扶持资金,一些众创空间是否能够享受到取决于运作,而不是孵化能力和孵化成果。”

  一位不愿具名的众创空间人士曾表示,政府优惠政策是真金白银,除了税收优惠外,科技部和地方政府会按照不同标准给予金额不等的资金扶持和补贴,“少的50万、100万,多的几千万元”。

  民进中央在提案中也警示:针对众创空间的政策针对性不强,普适性政策较多,且主要集中在房租补贴、税收优惠等方面,没有针对不同项目的不同阶段制定差别化政策,对创业辅导、投资人对接等方面考虑较少,没有针对性地触及创业者痛点。

  这一现状催生了大量以政府补贴和优惠政策为目的的伪众创空间,造成资源极大浪费,使得“好钢不能用在刀刃上”。

  其实,就初创企业分布现状看,只有北、上、广、深,四个一线城市和杭州等极少数的强二线城市具备众创空间发展的土壤。

  北京是创业气氛最为浓郁的城市,有人才、技术、资金等明显的聚集优势。上海和深圳产业基础坚实,金融发达,人口密集也具有相应发展空间。但相比较而言,其他二线城市第三产业占比远不及一线,创业创新的氛围也仅停留在政府扶持和喊口号层面。盲目进入这些城市发展众创空间,风险不小。

  另外,即使在北京这样的一线城市,地段因素也是决定众创空间经营成败的关键。北京的众创空间多分布在中关村、国贸、望京等产业活跃、经济发达、交通便利区域,而其他缺乏底蕴和偏远的地段估计难以实现健康运营。

  所以,在最一线的城市选择最适合的地段是众创空间生存的基础。

  成都Firefly 创业空间负责人李剑锋向媒体透露,不少地方政府设立了孵化器发展指标,有的孵化器甚至跟相关政府签订了对赌协议,每年必须完成多少创业团队入驻、必须有多少创业团队拿到投资,等等。如果未完成相关对赌协议将无法继续享有未来的红利及还需返还相应的补贴费用。“所以,各家孵化器需要争先恐后地抓取创业者及创业项目。但面临最大的问题是,由于没有创业环境,造成即便众创空间免费,也没有创业者入驻,至今入驻者寥寥。”

  一位创业者表示,目前相当一部分空间存在的意义在于工位租金便宜,对于初级创业者可以降低成本,其他能提供的服务很少。“无非就是组织一些创业论坛,起不到什么作用。”同时他也提到现金补贴对于一些众创空间和创业者造成的消极影响,“有了补贴之后,很多空间不愿再费心思做运营,不去想怎么增加服务来提高入驻率,反而存在‘无论怎样终归饿不死’的侥幸心态,造成发展动力匮乏”。

  例如,深圳许多众创空间的常规模式是,以创业名义,从政府和商业地产处以低价获取写字楼资源,再以开放办公室的形式出租给创业者。

  4 月22 日,深圳老牌孵化器孔雀机构内砸出一声巨响,这家经营了6 年之久、号称深圳本地最大的孵化器竟然在一夜之间被拆除。这是继两个多月前“地库”倒闭之后,深圳又一家孵化器难以为继。

  如果不是本次“强拆事件”出现,绝大多数人并不知道,孔雀机构其实并没有什么令人耳目一新的盈利模式,其角色仍然只是“二房东”。

  按照一位不愿具名的著名风投人士揭露,孔雀机构的盈利模式只是“一手拿政府补贴,一手拿入驻企业的租金,最多再加上融资成功后的佣金分成”。

  由于“二房东”创业机构模式的准入门槛太低,所以现在越来越多的众创空间一拥而上。而对于这种“二房东模式”的孵化器,房租涨价无疑是最直接的杀伤力。物业的成本优势和空间都没有了,价差优势也就不复存在。此前有说法表示,孔雀机构欠物业租金达到百万元,同时还欠租户预收的租金共计70 多万元。

  孔雀机构目前最大的股东陈鹏福就认为,除租金提升导致资金断裂之外,他更强调,“政府承诺的补贴迟迟不能到账也是资金断裂的原因。我们对政府奖励资金到位过分自信。”

  陈鹏福表示,从去年底政府公示宣布公司获得市科创委奖励100万元,资金真正到账足足比原定时间迟到了3 个多月。如果(资金)早一点到位,这笔资金绝对可以救助孔雀渡过难关。

  与孔雀等过度依赖租金和政府补贴的众创空间不同,同为众创空间的启迪之星,盈利主要来源股权或投资回报,而不单纯依靠房租和政府补贴。目前启迪之星已建立起一个从初级就业培训、众创空间到孵化器、加速器、高新园区为一体的产业链条,对创业项目累计投资20亿元,投资收入400亿元,回报率高达20倍。

  启迪之星董事长张金生对媒体表示,政府补贴对于启迪之星已经不再重要,“有也行,不补贴也没什么,因为这些补贴对于我们已经无足轻重”。目前启迪之星仍有200多个在投项目。

  这是目前业内普遍看好的一个可持续的盈利模式。不过,目前如启迪之星通过投资回报获得可观盈利的空间极少。

  上海帷迦科技有限公司(WE+)董事长兼首席执行官CEO刘彦认为,联合办公不应该是一个屌丝创业的游戏,需要重资产投入。如今众创空间正在经受着蓝海变红海的惨烈,但任何行业都有一个从野蛮生长到集约发展过程。其判断,“在三到五年之后,80%的众创空间最终会被洗掉。”

  一窝蜂的涌现让众创空间规模迅速扩张。除去投资机构,众多地产商也蠢蠢欲动。在他们看来,房地产市场存在过剩,众创空间是去库存一个好方式。但作为一种尚未成功验证的商业模式,规模迅速膨胀就难保品质。而摸着石头“跑步”过河,品质是否能统一、管理是否跟得上,经营是否可以平衡?都是摆在经营者面前的现实问题。

  “这是走不通的。”黄立冲言道,“这个领域是一个轻资产、重运营产业,与地产开发重资产、重资源、依靠土地和物业增值的方式刚好背离,这个产业是找到价值被低估的物业进行提升,而不是依靠炒作和品牌对物业进行提升。”

  试想,在一个几千平方米的众创空间里,几十个团队,每天会发生很多事情,怎么响应他们服务需求。种种琐碎,需要一个很好的管理系统,而不是仅有“卫生、上网、会议室、提供注册”等基础服务可以应对。

  同样是地产商出身的优客工场,其创始人毛大庆也一直渴望能够打造成一个“空间+系统+生态+投资+后台”加速器模式。而这些能够帮助创业者快速成长的能力,显然不可一蹴而就,需要漫长积累。

  杨炳龙,已经倒闭的深圳地库创始人。其早期创业的规划是,按每月800元一个工位租金计算,如果工位全部出租满,刚好可以抵销“地库”的租金和水电,而管理团队提供的创业服务和融资顾问服务,就会成为利润来源。但现实情况却是:地库创立4 个月已烧了100 多万元,但入驻率太低,高峰时期入驻率不到一半,竞争压力太大。最关键的是,杨炳龙深感资源有限,无法帮助创业团队取得关键性的发展,因此就更谈不上从服务上赚取利润。无奈下,地库只得选择转手。

  而有创业者对媒体表示,孔雀机构在此前宣称有额外创业服务,但当他去找工作人员时,孔雀机构总是以人手不足为由推脱。“哪怕是我想在招聘时,让他们帮忙筛选简历都做不到。进驻这几个月来,他们顶多就是安排了一些创业课堂和讲座等,另外还有一两次路演活动。”

  美国的做法则不同。以YC 为例,这家硅谷最著名的早期天使投资基金兼孵化器,由于孵化过Airbnb 这样的项目而备受关注。YC 每年公开征集项目,录取率不到3%,入选项目除了能够获得他们12 万美元的投资外,还能得到他们3 个月的创业培训。在培训结束后会有一个Demo Day,硅谷最顶级的投资人都会来参加这个活动看项目——像集市或者是拍卖会。

  相比而言,当下国内众创空间的困境是,其本质上应该提供更多创业配套服务,但由于入驻率不够,导致空间根本没有办法筛选更多优质项目,这也直接导致资金不充足,没法通过入股方式与创业者利益绑定。

  “现在绝大部分众创空间只是解决了物理空间的问题,没有解决配套问题。”FUNWORK创始人黄涛言道。

  “从硬件上讲,创业者需要众创空间提供交通便利、配套设施完善、办公硬件完善的办公场地;从软件上讲,则需要直指创业痛点,提供项目打磨、融资、推广等实实在在的支持,而不是泛泛的讲‘我们空间能帮你融资’类似这种空话套话。众创空间需要解决风险投资、财务、法务以及后续增值服务等问题,否则很难真正帮助创业者成长。”

  例如融资问题。黄涛表示,现在大部分的众创空间都没有自己基金,往往只是为创业者做一个牵线搭桥,这导致了很多无效对接。“这个牵线搭桥其实可以做好的。如果众创空间的自身打磨空间项目的实力强,那么投资机构才更信任空间举荐的创业项目。”

  李剑锋也认为,众创空间把创业者招募进来以后就如同投资机构的投后管理,通过投资机构对接相应市场及资本、培训。这样的孵化器式管理模式也才更加专业,更能让创业者受益。

  不过,就像刘彦所说的“联合办公产业不应该是一个屌丝创业的游戏,需要重资产投入”,精细运营同样面对成本问题。大跃进式的扩张让众创空间面临着巨大生存压力。“生存都成问题,谁还去过多考虑‘精细运营’?”

  黄立冲就指出,运营服务想法虽好,但提供的增值服务如何收回成本是大问题,“难道真要苦苦等到若干年企业成功后吗?”

  “一般企业成熟,实现腾飞正常等候期是10年(IT业会快些),能指导白手创业者的人都是稀缺人才,不是找不到就是太贵,对新创业者盲目提供服务是难以回收成本的。”黄立冲说。

  易居中国执行总裁丁祖昱则表示, 真正有资源、有专业、有能力的联合办公产业的运营商并不是太多,未来这个市场会经历大浪淘沙,大的吃掉小的、精致的吃掉粗糙的,会出现几家大的品牌运营商,垄断五成以上的市场。

  优客工厂创始人毛大庆曾讲过一个故事。他组织过一个50 个用户的交流会,会上请每个人写一个自己认为最牛的特长(优势),结果每个人都拥有相当牛的资源,比如认识某知名三甲医院的主任医生,比如在法律界有影响力,比如在某名校有朋友等。毛大庆举例说,如果把自己的特长与其他49 人交汇融合,则50 个人便拥有全场的资源。

  其实,这正是联合办公产业的魅力所在——连接!空间共享远远不够,资源与人脉的共享才是关键!

  刘彦认为,联合办公的精神是其对资本市场的想象空间,在于一些中小企业能够在它所营造出的资源对接环境中快速成长。这种“发展”有几个部分,第一,入驻企业彼此之间信任后,可以达成协作空间。第二,通过平台引入资金扶持,以及其他资源。

  中小企业的一个痛点是靠单打独斗发展,比如在销售渠道、客户来源、招聘等,在初期会面临很多困难,“所以要抱团取暖”。

  而一个好的众创空间运营商,如果没有运营,没有联合办公最核心的“联合”,只能叫拼“空间”。

  优客工场于近日发布了《中国众创空间发展蓝皮书》。蓝皮书里提出:很多众创空间没有做到平台资源共享的原因在于量散力薄,各自为营。绝大部分人并没有注重“包容”与“共享”理念,众创空间主体应该多多鼓励联盟、投资、并购,规模化布局。

  蓝皮书中还强调,共享办公的鼻祖WeWork来到中国对于国内众创空间的创业者来说既是机遇也是挑战,单一“数桌子”的收租模式必将被淘汰,而其终极目标是构建生态系统,更有效地服务于“众创、众包、众筹、众扶”的创业创新领域。

  未来众创空间增值服务要变得有深度,有差异化,不仅仅只能提供物理空间等硬件,更大意义上拼的是生态搭建。优客工场就与中投保险、玖富集团等机构签署战略协议,达成合作共识,将一同为创业者提供生态环境整合服务。

  在记者走访时,不少众创空间运营方都透露出这样一条消息:他们或多或少都收到过其他众创空间抛来的合纵连横的橄榄枝。

  “众创空间这个新生事物,目前的模式都未成熟。虽然,现在整合时都爱讲优势互补,但各自优势是什么、互补什么,这很难说明白。”黄涛直言,因为包括FUNWORK 在内都不得不面对的一个现实是:当今,众创空间同质化很高,现在的整合其实就是单纯的市场份额的整合,很难形成“1+1>2”的协同效应。

  刘彦也发现了这个问题。他认为,“现在,类似联盟这样的整合,内部成员之间的连接是薄弱的,除非是几个不同定位的空间运营者组成联盟,或者定位相仿情况下,以将来的合并为目的,将有股权置换或投资的行为。”

  5月的一个晚上,他在上海邀请了几位同样在打磨众创空间产品的朋友讨论,不仅不要互打,还要在当月内组建一个相对小众的联盟。为了彼此之间的对等,这个联盟的准入条件是,加入的众创空间要有名气,起码排名前十。目前已经招募了4家,希望最终有5-6个空间运营方加入。

  “我们这4家空间的商业定位不同,即针对客群的不同。”刘彦很在意这一点。他说,WE+里15%-20%是初创型企业,80%则是中小型企业;P2中的互联网企业较多,每个工位的定价低于WE+500 元左右;X note 主要做孵化服务,其中一个合作伙伴是techcrunch公司,因而特别强调技术类企业;裸心社Naked Hub的团队曾开发过民宿莫干山裸心谷度假村项目,服务对象会是更有文艺范的那批人,估计50%以上是外国人。

  美国办公共享经济品牌WeWork不仅来华入沪,而且第一家门店让国内众效仿者一时间“找不到北”。4 月,《地产》记者获悉WeWork 中国首店将一改横扫美国被人津津乐道的开放办公玩法,以独立办公的包间形式为主。5月初,WeWork 中国项目平面图被上海媒体爆料,看上去宛若雷格斯等商务中心。

  两层平面图上都分割出诸多小包间,开放办公只占一个小小区域。其中, 标着PrivateOffice 和Shared Office 的包间比重接近。其中Shared Office 部分存在根据市场情况灵活调配的可能,日后既可作为独立房间,也可共享办公。

  “难道大家都走错路了吗?”唯一让人觉得与商务中心不同之处,是从施工图上可以看到单元隔墙带着大块玻璃。

  “WeWork 挖的本地人才基本都是商务中心出身,所以在思路上会倾向于商务中心。”有业内人士表示。而在黄立冲看来,美国WeWork走的就是商务中心模式。“我反而认为这是专业的判断。做生意是为了赚钱,没有必要拘泥于模式,不同的模式受用程度不一。”

  早在2000年初就已悄然进入中国市场的商务中心便是二房东的玩法。从操作上来说,通常,商务中心会在写字楼里承租几千平方米面积,随后,改造成一个个的小隔断,将网线、电话、家具等配套设备准备齐当,向外出租,以工位为收费单位,办公室可按天、按月或按年等不同期限租用。商务中心同样重视服务,从茶水、饮料,打印、传真、收发快递,会议室使用乃至在家移动办公一应俱全,费用另行计价。

  广义理解,黄立冲认为,商务中心和众创空间都可算是联合办公。“今天联合办公的二房东,其实更像运营商,为创业企业带来便利、低成本、高效的运营商就能存活下来。”世鳌国际联合创始人、总裁刘天飚称。

  值得注意的是,WeWork能在美国落地开花结果,与其自身经济土壤有很大关联。

  “由于美国人不喜欢在家有访客,且美国从2008 年经济危机以来,失业率达到9%,自由职业者颇多——文化因素和经济因素使得联合办公市场空间很大。”黄立冲解释道。

  刘天飚也认为,WeWork 所代表的联合办公的蹿红,得益于美国市场所拥有的包括第二职业在内约5200 万的自由职业者,他们在创业时,对彼此之间连接需求巨大。此外,信任是合作的前提,美国有较为完善的信用体系,这也让自由职业者间的连接更易实现。而且美国上下游产业链之间的协作也有一套默认的规则,自由职业者不用当全能选手,只专注一点,成为一个细分领域中的佼佼者,他们就能挣到钱。但在现如今的中国,上述这些个人创业所需的养料并不充沛。

  “中国是中小企业最难成功的地方之一。在中国并不存在把创新概念作为创业动力的说法,只有‘有资源’和‘没有资源’这两种说法。如此大环境之下,并不适合没有资源的个人创业,不然,他们的失败率会很高。”黄立冲直言,由于中国整体市场环境对创业者而言相对不易,目前,市场上小型创业者多为屌丝型创业者。屌丝型创业者普遍创业失败率高、不稳定,由于支付能力弱,他们虽有支付增值服务的意愿,但是没有支付能力,联合办公为他们提供服务,可能面临持续的亏损,很难回本。“我更认可针对相对成熟的成长企业的做法。这类企业在战略、融资、成长方面的需求更加明确,随着资金注入,他们能够支付较高服务费用。而且具备更高端服务需求的成长企业,更容易产生协同效应。”

  而时下的商务中心正如已在国内打开一片疆域的雷格斯,其官网显示,他们涵盖的客户类型既有初创企业,也有中小企业,还有大型国际公司。

  综上种种,这就不难理解为何WeWork 以自己的招牌做中国特色,选择了风险较低的方式——类似商务中心做法在中国起步。

  “主张全要素服务平台的联合办公,本质上就讲两件事,办公的物理空间+ 服务。”刘天飚进而指出,盈利模型上,联合办公就可从办公或服务这两个方向导入,“套用互联网思维,赢利点是取一,另外一个相当于免费,作为流量入口。”

  显例如以桌子为入口的优客工场,其便是拿办公做流量入口,盈利在服务。而此前携手优客工场的洪泰空间则是以服务为入口,涉猎孵化功能,如创投业务、咨询辅导等,以此引入人气,赚钱是在办公层面。

  5月下旬,由盈石中国创投基金打造的摩客空间(Mallwork Space)首家店上海新邻站开业。这家共享办公空间与众不同之处,是其位于上海黄浦区新邻生活广场。

  “把联合办公作为一个品牌出现在购物中心里,再结合自身的商业资源,在购物中心不适合做成商铺的地方,搞一些类似WeWork 的创市集等产品互动展示活动。”季宇晔道出摩客空间的产品模型。据他透露,上海这家新店,原本是物业管理用房,在一个面积不大的角落里。其相当于这家购物中心的一个存量,租金也低于购物中心其他区域。于是,租金差构成了摩客空间的第一个盈利点。

  摩客空间计划除了在上海等一线城市布点,还将下沉到二三线城市,如重庆、武汉、长沙、云南等。“届时,摩客空间将形成一个覆盖全国的产品发布体系,这就是服务附加值的盈利点。”季宇晔表示,这个目前针对入驻企业的产品发布体系,除了在共享办公空间内设有一个展示中心进行产品直播,还将借力摩客空间旗下门店所在购物中心的大屏幕,进行产品转播。

  “盈石创投也投资了一个剧场产品,项目团队就可派技术团队来做直播。另外,我们还投资了一个VR 体验产品,直播时VR 技术也能够结合起来。”季宇晔言道。此外,摩客空间在购物中心里会有一个展示面与商场相通,这同样可以用作产品的广告宣传。日后,甚至不是入驻团队的产品也能使用摩客空间的产品发布体系。

  对于以全新的互联网思维来经营的WeWork,黄立冲表示,它不是在物业(办公)上赚钱,而是从交叉销售上赚钱。

  “WeWork 给我们的盈利想象空间就表现在包括社群在内的服务上。”刘天飚续称。

  WeWork 在海外的大获成功,同样离不开共享经济这股热浪。人们需要打车,于是有了Uber ;旅行需要有地方住,于是有了Airbnb ;创业者需要有办公场地,于是有了WeWork。

  业内有种说法,共享办公存在大把的商业机会,市场的潜在客户能够为他们提供大量物业,就算开始不能获利,随着品牌的增强将来也能获利。黄立冲对此持坚决的否定态度。在他看来,“地产和租赁最大的特点是一子错,满盘皆输。

  物业如果开局不赚钱,除非市场发生颠覆性变化,否则将长期亏损。地产价值提升的关键,是在决策阶段就在位置、价格定位、投资规模方面准确切入。

  “除此之外, 黄立冲强调, 用OPM(Other People's Money) ,即拿着投资人的钱创业,商业模式的尝试依靠投资人的钱来试错也是导致联合办公市场盲目的原因。“一家企业、一个商业模式的制定首先应该量入为出,也就是说,前景很重要,你是谁更重要。如果你不是已经具备能实现前景的那家公司,前景再好与你没有关系,你可能死的比任何人都快。”

  “若对成功有把握,应拿着自己钱来创业,证明成功后,才引入战略投资者,这样才能保持自己的方向,成功地完成对赌。”黄立冲直言,商业模式的尝试是在融资前完成,并证明能够成功再进行融资。

  “今年春节过后,资本圈几乎达成一种共识,不会再轻易给国内众创空间投钱。”刘天飚的言外之意是,只会有针对性地投资。

  目前,作为一种新兴业态,众创空间仍处在“占领那条能够超越其他人的快跑道”的阶段。“这种新型商业模式到底跟传统办公的模式有多大区别,是真的可以实现,还是大家喊喊口号?这些不光是投资人,就连上万个众创空间本身都不很清晰。”刘彦直陈,大部分投资人也很懵懂,他们唯一可以对标的就是WeWork 的160亿美元最新估值。当然,在国内,还有共享办公的标杆优客工场,今年3 月公开宣布的40 亿元人民币的估值。

  “国内的众创空间,目前没有大型投资人介入。”刘天飚称。

  即便是优客工场,其所拥有的46 个投资者大部分为地产类的产业基金,以及个人投资或小型投资公司。“这传递出的信息是,众多耳熟能详的主流投资基金公司对众创空间到底未来的走向如何,仍不太明白。”刘彦说。

  “从去年10 月份开始,资本市场对APP、‘互联网+’领域不再兴趣浓郁,关注热点更多转向了VR(虚拟现实技术)。”季宇晔表示,这些APP、“互联网+ ”开发团队的产品就难以获得资金支持,支付租金也就成了问题。

  我们不禁要问,当前,资本圈对于投资众创空间的兴趣不在了吗?

  黄立冲认为,不能这么简单的理解。“投资的真谛在于放弃99%可能失败的企业,找到1%最可能成功的企业,给予他们最大的帮助,分享他们成功的收益。”

  投资人会如何判别这1%值得一投的众创空间?

  在刘彦看来,如果让他来投资一家众创空间,考量要素有:第一,团队中的人才出身要有新旧产业的组合背景,比方说既有来自传统的商业地产、酒店管理的人,也有具备互联网思维的人。团队构架上,市场部、服务部、设计部等一个都不能少。第二,创始团队背后的资源考量,包括在传统地产业务,以及有无投资经验。第三,众创空间目前的门店布点、店内出租率、组织活动人气情况,乃至入驻客户的反馈,合作方满意度。

  黄涛同样认为,众创空间行业最核心的考核指标是股东回报率,但因其还未真正走向成熟,所以现在他们更看重空间内部的客户满意度。“因为客户满意了,才能形成口碑,出租率才能高,好的项目才愿意来。日后,该众创空间才能有可投项目,最终实现高回报率。”

  优客工场蓝皮书也指出,在对某一众创空间发展状况进行评估检测时,应当不唯孵化面积、孵化数量、服务创业者数量等指标而论,而更应注重其服务能力和孵化企业存活率。

  选择是双向的,对于众创空间而言,刘彦建议,选择投资人时要有两类投资人组合着来较好, 除了一直做VC、PE 如鼎晖、戈壁、IDG 等投资基金,另外还要引进如地产出身的产业基金。

  而如果用众筹方式来运作众创空间,又会怎样?

  “由创业团队众筹的众创空间,很难发展起来。”刘彦的回答很直接。在他看来,这类众创空间的弱点在于没有一个核心主体。虽说“人多好办事”,但对于众创空间的初创团队而言,还是需要一个强有力的声音,哪怕有点“独裁”,“创业是小步快跑,要去试错,及时决策并担当后果”。

  “但是,在众创空间这个平台中应该有众筹元素,假如空间拥有几千个入驻企业,可以尝试帮其中一些新创企业众筹,助其推出新产品。”刘彦补充道。黄涛的观点则是,对于众创空间来说,自筹资金来投资是最有效率的解决方案,让创业者距离资金最近。在众创空间自有基金运作的前期,可与一些具有行业经验的风投机构合作筛选项目,这样的合投项目对于资金的供需双方都有一个保证。

  前不久,WE+母基金做了这么一件事,其拉来7个国内排名前十的天使基金,如英诺、寒武创投、PreAngel 基金等,希望把他们的资源凑在一起。

  “现在,鉴于投资人本身对于众创空间的模式并未看透,他们能够起到的扶持作用也就比较有限。即便如此,众创空间同样可以花心思,充分利用一下。”刘彦的思路是,通常投资机构旗下拥有多个基金,这些基金所投产业可否通过共享办公平台,融在一起,产生更多互动?譬如WE+ 基金就可以把涉足VR、AR(增强现实技术)产业的投资资源拼接在一起。

  于是,便有了在上海浦江镇,一家以VR、AR 为主题的联合办公空间,目前正在装修,预计7 月开业。“我们跟另外一家做AR 媒体的‘AR酱’也会做同样的事情。”刘彦续称。

  众创空间从兴起之初就夹杂着泡沫。或言之,摩尔定律在众创空间同样适用,即它会历经半年的上升期,半年的平稳期和半年的衰退期。

  “今天的众创空间已经走了一半的路程。”刘天飚判断,众创空间从去年5月份开始兴起,今年春节前步入高潮,春节过后到七八月份将是个迷茫期。迷茫期,众多众创空间运营方对自身的商业模式、产品能力、客户都有疑惑。合纵联横背后是——就想看看别人怎样运作,哪怕是概念上联合也可以让众创空间的老板们心里稍显踏实。今年七八月份后的衰退期则可能是一轮大浪淘沙,一直持续到2017年依然会有行业整合盘整的挑战。

  “从百花争鸣到三国争雄,众创空间在接下来的10 个月会经历一个大洗牌。”刘彦给出了另一个时间段的判断。相对于传统办公,众创空间还是小众产品,但其工位数会增加。届时,能够生存下来的众创空间的市场份额就会扩大,两三年之内应该会出现3-5个巨头分食80% 的市场份额。因此,在未来6-10个月内,主流基金会进入众创空间这个行业,挑选出两到三个在业内步伐迈得比较快的众创空间运营方进行大笔注资。

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