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www.龙8国际.com:今年90%的孵化器会死,因为创业者质量跟不上(下篇)

  2016-07-27 08:29  来源: 风吹江南ID:jrjnfq  我来投稿  我要评论

www.龙8国际.com,不过,这一次“狮鼠影业”只能拿到利润的小头。同时还要积极履行社会责任,特别是要扎实做好精准扶贫工作,妥善处理好改革发展稳定的关系,为党的十九大胜利召开营造良好的环境。  七、推动数字经济发展和数字红利普惠共享  推动落实联合国信息社会世界峰会确定的建设以人为本、面向发展、包容性的信息社会目标,以此推进落实2030年可持续发展议程。资料显示,目前我国已登记允许使用的植物激素共55种;并制定19种植物生长调节剂的113项最大残留限量标准、4种豁免制定残留限量(因毒性低而不需制定限量)。

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www.龙8国际.com,资料图:北京某锅炉房外堆放的煤渣等废弃物。使用了植物生长调节剂以后,会引起草莓奇大、空心或者畸形吗?王强认为草莓果个大还是小、果肉空心还是实心、果皮厚还是薄、果型是否易畸形、有无香气,其实都是品种特性。俄罗斯常驻联合国副代表萨夫龙科夫在表决后发言说,俄罗斯反对这一企图对叙利亚实施制裁的决议草案。(三)实施电信网络诈骗犯罪,诈骗数额接近“数额巨大”“数额特别巨大”的标准,具有前述第(二)条规定的情形之一的,应当分别认定为刑法第二百六十六条规定的“其他严重情节”“其他特别严重情节”。

  创业项目优选 好项目来A5招商 ,点击入驻!

  摘要:孵化器能够位于更多创业者聚集的地方,那么就会产生更多出现创业机会的可能,这个角度看,位于相对的学校周围和大型企业周围,还是很重要的一个条件。

  

今年90%的孵化器会死,因为创业者质量跟不上(下篇)

 

  孵化器成功第一要素是地段

  随着创业蓬勃发展,现在创业孵化器也开始雨后春笋一般的兴起,因为我自己在杭州不经意玩票性子搞了个茶馆,也莫名其妙的有了7100多个股东,不经意间成了一个所谓孵化器。虽然,我自己从来没有想过要成为孵化器,这个过程中,我有过不少思考。所以就拿出来跟大家一起探讨,我认为孵化器是很容易起步,但是也是很难走到最后的一个事情,因为他最终是要孵化出好的项目来保证生存下去的。

  我觉得一个成功的孵化器需要具备几个基本的条件,否则其实最终结果都不会好。谁来做都未必能做的起来,他不是一个大资本进来就可以成功的商业模式,他有很多靠钱无法堆积起来的理由。

  我自己感觉一个孵化器能够成功第一个因素其实是地段,很多人都说又不是房地产,怎么还跟地段有关系。

  但是事实上全球范围来看一个成功的创业孵化器还是跟地段有不可分割的关系,硅谷地区有数量众多的各种创业咖啡馆,分布以斯坦福大学为中心点,分散开去,核心还是以斯坦福大学作为基础的,为什么呢,因为斯坦福大学为这些孵化器提供了数量众多的创业者。

  我们也在很多大型公司周边也看到很多特色的孵化器,硅谷周边大型公司周边也都有很多咖啡馆,也催生了不少优秀的企业,所以一个好的地段,其实并非是说城市中心,而是要看周围产出创业者可能性到底有多大,这个很重要,在一个更容易产出创业者的地方,搭建孵化器的成功概率会更高。

  你在一堆垃圾扎堆的地方搞孵化器,怎么搞都是死

  其实在美国有两派,一派就是硅谷派,一派就是华尔街派,很明显,过去的富豪和精英,都是华尔街派,但是最近几年硅谷派异军突起,创业者云集,华尔街是个讲究稳固体系,阶层明显的区域,创业者很难出人头地,所以,硅谷热闹非凡,而华尔街稳重成熟,前者出创业者,孵化器,后者就是是打工精英云集。所以,一个孵化器,如果脱离区域优势,硬生生的去砸一个孵化器的可能性会很低。

  我前面说过,创业者,其实我感觉所谓创业者是一种发自内心深处的折腾基因,我们在成功或者失败的创业者身上看到的这种不安分的基因,其实都不是后天培养出来的,他们更多都是被筛选和淘汰出来的,很多人在做所谓的创业者训练营,其实我从来不看好。

  创业者走出创业这一步是无法通过后天培养,那一定是来自内心一种躁动不安,如果不去做,就会感到很不开心的事情,这种事情注定是无法后天培养的,当然创业者走到一定境地之后,需要升级,完成从企业家转型的过程,这个过程是可以后天培训,然后他们自身努力完成升级的,这个阶段的必要学习是有价值的。但是在前期的创业者培育上,我个人从来不认为有价值,我们也没有看到那个牛逼的企业家一开始是被培训出来的,很多时候,创业教育,应该是一个不断帮助他们脱颖而出的机会给予,而不是训练他们。

  大学生创业是典型的不靠谱

  孵化器能够位于更多创业者聚集的地方,那么就会产生更多出现创业机会的可能,这个角度看,位于相对的学校周围和大型企业周围,还是很重要的一个条件。

  只是从某个角度来看,在美国,大学生创业成功率会更高,而中国大学生创业几乎没有成功的,我们从来不参加任何关于大学生创业选拔的活动,都是一堆没有经验,没有阅历,没有技能、没有格局的人,几乎没有成功的可能。

  从这点看,并非是学生自己的问题,我们得承认,中国大学教育在某个意义上讲是失败的,当然我个人没觉得这种失败有啥不好,中国的社会毕业之后,面临的压力很大,人生难得有个几年空闲时光,让你可以吃吃喝喝,玩玩乐乐,谈谈恋爱,睡睡觉,干什么要去创业呢?毕业以后,有的是机会去做的事情,干什么要在大学里去做呢?

  美国是个相对稳定的社会,毕业之后的大学生压力并没有那么大,所以从他们角度来看,在大学里多折腾点事情,本身也是各自的一种人生选择,而且美国大学生的实践水平远高于国内,他们在大学就基本算上一个成熟的创业者了。中国至少毕业三年之后,才能算个相对合格的创业者。

  这三年里,他们会吃尽苦头,尝尽冷暖,受尽委屈,然后才能知道自己并不是什么重要人物,别把自己看的太重,才能会尝试落地了,许多大学里的孩子,都太把自己当一回事了,大学生创业,其实就可以直接归纳为不靠谱,即使有,数量也很少。

  这里又分可以分两个情况,第一个是美国还是一个技术导向的国家,在中国大谈商业模式的时候,美国的创新方向还是集中在技术创新领域,我们看美国的比尔盖茨,那是出了个牛逼的东西叫WINDONWS,所以人家辍学能牛逼,谷歌的两个牛逼人物出了个牛逼的技术叫搜索技术,人家在技术领域也是全美顶尖人物,所以人家能辍学创业,因为做了人家做不了的事情。扎克伯格到是有点类似商业应用导向,做了个被大家广泛使用的东西,而非技术导向,但是我们看到美国更多还是技术支撑为主。

  但是中国其实还没到那个阶段,中国人口众多,人口红利还没充分释放的阶段,根本轮不到技术上场,中国卖个机票都能卖出两家上市公司的情况下,技术压根还不需要的时候。所以,过去几年乃至到未来两三年内,我看中国还是会以商业模式创新应用为主导性力量,这个时候,其实是比对客户需求的把握为核心竞争力的,你一个大学生,要啥没啥,对社会认知不深刻,人性理解也不充分的情况下,鬼才会相信你能做出商业模式应用的创新模式,都是处于假想的自我意淫中去,想象出自己的产品,解决了多少社会问题,解决了多少人的需求,都压根是扯淡呢?

  我这几年很少见大学生,因为见识不够,总觉得自己能战天斗地,一上来看,开口五千万美金估值,说做了多少牛逼的东西,我问他你知道跟你一样商业模式的公司么?你做过市场真正的需求调研么?你真的认为别人都是你想的那样么?

  我们说,你要做一件事情的时候,先去看看有没有同类的模式再去说,别人做的如何了,遇到什么问题了,这些都是创业者基本要去面临和解决的问题,事实上能把这块做的扎实的人都很少,这个反应了创业者其实缺乏基本的创业素养。都靠自己的想当然。很多人说来请教我问题。

  我基本都认为是扯淡,我们能帮上什么忙呢?

  你们才是创业者,理论上在这个行业里,你要做的事情,要比我明白,比我懂才是,如果你们都没有我懂,那干什么你创业啊,我去得了。我们只能从我们看到的一些大的趋势性问题和行业性宏观层面给些帮助而已,具体的东西,我们怎么懂啊。都反映出了创业者很浮躁,不愿意踏实做事情的性格。

  当然干脆还有很多人基本的商业计划书都没有,问他们做了么,他们说这个很简单,随时可以做,我觉得吧,其实并不是如此的,一个商业计划书,本身真不代表啥,也没想象中那么重要,因为很多模式本身都会变化,现在写了,以后可能都完全不一样,但是BP至少可以看出一个创业者基本的格局观,也可以看出一个创业者看问题的方式方法,他是我们判断创业者是否靠谱非常重要的依据,很多人写商业计划书洋洋洒洒,几万字,写的很细,深怕一些东西,说不明白,也深怕给我们感觉不好,其实我们压根不会在乎很多细节问题,我们更在乎的一个人阐述的创业逻辑,具体的细节,包括预算,其实从来都不靠谱,谁能知道实际过程中,多少数字才合理啊,这些都是细节,没必要深究,但是你要做的事情,你解决了什么问题,你怎么解决的,你怎样比别人更有优势,这些远比你去列清单,更有实际意义。

  我们常说讨论问题是开放式的,你会发现前面讲的,后面忘记了,他是不系统的,缺乏逻辑的,想到那里讲那里的,这种讨论面谈,固然可以讨论更透彻,但是随意性更强,很难适合做一个真正意义上的决策的,所以商业计划书还是很重要的,不要轻易忽略。

  我们也碰到很多创业者直接跟我们说,你喜欢什么样的商业计划书,你觉得该怎么做,有木有模板,直接可以改的,我们都会很无语,事实上,创业不是我要创,是你们自己想做一件事情,合格的创业者,是深刻的知道自己想做什么,而不是我们想要什么,你做你自己想做的,然后找到认可你的人,来投资你,然后坚定的支持你,你不是来找一帮大妈天天催着你,惯着你,不断的干涉你,每天骂你说,你给我的计划是这样的,结果你却做成这样的,一定要知道,人是不可能改变自己的颜色的,你想做什么,认可什么,是不会改变的,如果会轻易因为别人而改变最初的想法,那么这样的创业者,我们投资你干什么呢?只有坚定的坚持自己的初心,最初想做的事情,碰到问题,可以绕着往前,而不是直接转向,一个经常容易转向的人根本不值得投资啊。纯粹跟我们说你想要什么样的模式,我们写成这样,那不是我们想要的投资人。所以我们从来都说,商业计划书,不是给我们的,是给你们自己的,帮助你更好的理解你自己要做的事情,帮助你更好的想明白一些事情。很多事情,大逻辑是靠谱的,但是真落到纸面上,很快会发现是不靠谱的,这些是思考的过程。

  幸存者定律

  智商不高的创业者才看显性成本

  这里其实还有一个很重要的点,其实创业总体而言,隐性成本比显性成本更重要的,显性成本一般指房租等成本,隐形成本,指的是那些看不到的成本,例如员工上下班的时间成本,附近员工吃住的成本,还有对外沟通交流的成本,这些都是看不到的成本。

  我前面说了孵化器的地段很重要,一方面是要靠近创业者聚集的地方,另外还有一个很重要的地方,其实是孵化器还是需要更低的隐形成本,好的地段,周边配套完备,创业者的隐形创业成本会低很多,同样都是创业,一个地方房租免费,一个地方房租2000,但是前者地处偏远,每天员工上下班要两个多小时,而且有事出去沟通交流,至少两个小时车程,想吃点东西,买点东西,都不方便,后者就市中心,地铁、公交什么都很方便,想吃啥吃啥,想买啥买啥,那个更好。

  不同的人肯定不同的看法,但是我想如果创业者图个便宜的房租,选择去第一个地方的话,我基本上就感觉这个团队没有任何的投资价值,说明智商有问题,为了便宜个千把块钱,每天路上奔波两三个小时的创业者,不是智商有问题是什么有问题呢?

  美国许多创业者选择车库创业,主要是因为离开他的学校近,很方便,生活成本也很低,中国很多创业者其实都是选择在民宅,一方面比美国的车库成本还低,关键还是因为配套很完备,小区周边什么都有,压根不需要跑来跑去。

  我一直说,创业是最快时间试错的过程,用最短的时间证明一个模式是否可行是极其重要的,越快证明一个模式不可行,你就可以去折腾下一次机会,创业最怕就是折腾了大半年花了无数的钱,最后证明模式不可行,钱其实花的更多的同时,关键把有限的精力也给花费了,人生能被用来消耗的创业时间其实是非常短暂的,这个时候,时间绝对比金钱更重要。

  我投资过一个团队,我在看了他预算的时候,我感觉技术人员的工资过高了,就问他,他说,与其降低成本去招聘一些不太成熟的技术团队,花费大量的时间磨合,不如干脆工资高点,然后减少磨合成本,最快时间试错,看上去花钱了,实际上省钱了,这个道理就是很对的。这种人说明有格局观,许多会算小账的人,往往不会算大账,我们创业是为了最终的结果,不是让你去省钱的,省钱省到最后,其实成本反倒更高。许多老年人,也是经常犯错,经常为了省钱,去做公交车,有点小毛病不去医院,最后呢,钱看上去省下来了,但是结果因为小病不去看,都变成了大毛病,这个时候花的钱,远比小毛病的时候要多的多。为了贪图便宜省几个房租的钱,会把公司搬到很远的地方去的创业团队,我一般都认为智商是有问题的。

  快一定是互联网创业里面核心的核心

  互联网有句话是唯快不破,我觉得是有道理的,创业是个谁比谁快的过程,谁的时间更快,谁的成功概率就更高,因为他有更多的时间去折腾更多的次数,我们说努力勤奋等等,回到最后其实并非是努力勤奋有多重要,而是因为努力和勤奋给了你更多的时间去试错,从而也有了更多的抓住所谓机遇的机会,人生一次就想抓住机遇是很困难的,但是你折腾十次八次,总归会有一次被你抓住,而一辈子,抓住一次机遇足够了。一个不努力不勤奋的人,抓住机遇概率会很低很低。

  最近我见过很多特别牛逼的技术,其实我觉得吧,现在的社会其实不再是过去,过去很多人会用一辈子去做一件事情,然后一堆人欣赏,围观,我感觉现在的社会变化太快,不一定是浮躁的结果,而是人类眼球转移的快,今天喜欢这个,明天可能就喜欢另外一个,信息爆炸的社会,你能接触的东西越来越多,也就是热点频出,还没等你用一辈子熬出个未来吧,世界就变了,所以,做事情做到极致,我就不是很认同,现在的社会,一个好的技术团队往往会被一个垃圾的技术团队打败,我见过一个创业者,他跟我说,他的技术比某一个很有名的APP的技术好很多很多,所以叫我投资他,一定能成功,我说别瞎扯淡了,技术好有什么用呢?市场出现技术的时候,其实对技术的依赖度并不高,被需要是第一核心,大家回想下微信刚出来的时候,技术并不是很好,但是市场需要这个东西,然后他就被接受了,我相信现在能够做的比微信技术好的东西估计也有不少,来往,陌陌都不差,为什么搞不死微信啊,是技术的原因么,不是啊。

  在合适的时候,出现了某一类市场需要的产品,人们会主动忽略技术的很多东西,技术想到一个好产品,被需要是第一性,当然在尽可能的前提下做好技术体验是必须的,但是千万别太讲究技术的极致,非要做到很好很好完美无缺再出来,你会发现等你出来了以后,市场早被人用不太好的垃圾技术给占领了,很多技术人员创业面临的问题就是过于追求完美,总是追求极致,问题是那里来那么多极致的东西,你应该考虑的是竞争对手的情况,你其实确切的说,只要比竞争对手好一点就可以了,那里需要做那么好呢,所有的好都是要成本投入的,所以,别陷入自我完美的要求,我见过很多才华横溢的设计师,也见过无数牛逼的技术人员,创业都不是很成功,他们总是会拿自己的要求,去套社会用户的要求,事实上,你之所以是设计师,是因为你比别人牛逼太多,他们并不需要那么牛逼,他们只要觉得还不错就行,而你却非要很好,你就自己被自己搞死了。

  很多美工花费无数个日夜做出了漂亮的H5推广稿,结果到最后,人家看一眼很震撼,然后就转发一下啊,在然后呢,没有然后了。说白了,都是你花费了无数多的东西,无数多的感动自己的东西,结果对于别人来说也就只是两三秒的东西而已,根本不重要,或许你会觉得别人不懂欣赏,觉得社会浮躁,觉得世界出了问题,但是这就是现实,你无法改变的现实。所以,所谓极致体验,其实也都是互联网人自己吹牛逼吹出来的,真那么多极致的东西,社会也就不会迭代往前了,说明互联网一定有很多不足的地方存在,那里有那么多极致的东西呢,吹牛逼的事情,别太信了。所以,技术要学会在奔跑中不断调整,这一定是常态,一步到位的人,则永远推不出好产品。

  我对好的技术人员定义为三个层面,一级技术是出货快又好,二级技术是出货快但是一般般,三级技术是出货慢,但是很好。我感觉我前两者我都喜欢,后者我不需要,一个技术团队一个星期出一个过的去的产品,一定比一个三个月出货,但是产品很不错的团队要来得强,第一市场不会等你,第二你要做的很好,你的投入会很大,一旦你方向出了问题之后,越好的东西,后果代价就越大,我宁愿要一个快速试错的团队,也不会要一个极致体验的团队,好的技术产品要快速根据市场能不断自我调整,而过于精致的东西,总是浪费试错的时间。

  互联网加快了创业周期,目前创业大概也就是半年出结果,一个团队如果做的产品不错,半年基本上能融资下一轮,如果半年还没有什么结果,那么说明方向估计会有问题,需要调整。所以,现在的创业者,我一直跟他们说,别太花时间在创业以外的事情上,也别太计较所谓的房租的事情上,差不多就行了,找个各方面都比较市中心方便的地方,弄个民宅,一个月花个两三千,赶紧扎下来,然后拼命死活的创业,最快出产品,最快证明模式可行,然后就可以拿到风投,然后就可以搬到高大上的地方去了,孵化器这种地方,说白了都是有最好,没有也无所谓的事情,锦上添花而已。提高的概率,而不是必然性。

  杭州有不少好的小镇,前几天看到梦想小镇,里面应有都有,设施一应俱全,大量创业者现在入住在里面,我经常在朋友圈里能看到很多照片,加上西溪湿地是全国最漂亮的地方,于是每天都能看到不少美好的风景图片,然后以真羡慕嫉妒恨啊,然后满心感慨说,那真是个谈恋爱的好地方啊。既然是谈恋爱的好地方,那么在这里谈创业这种事情,真感觉有点扯淡的味道在里面啊。

  面对如此良辰美景,我感觉在想创业的人进去了,可能都最终会春心荡漾,一个个全谈恋爱去了,创什么业呢,要想创业,那就是要到最艰苦的地方去,吃也吃不好,住也住不好,然后每天恨不得离开这里,跟坐牢一样,才能爆发你的潜力啊,然后里面的人,也会不断的告诉自己,忍受今天的所有的苦难痛苦,都是为了有一天他妈的能赚很多很多的钱,这种就是创业悲情感。李开复的创新工厂很多人都很怀念,怀念什么呢,怀念一张桌子十几个人,手脚都挪不开的工位,就是如此啊,创业是需要大家一路上逆风飞扬的那种感觉,而不是青山绿水的安逸。

  黄晓捷师兄很多年前跟我说过一句话,那时候他们已经是在英蓝大厦办公,我去的时候,我调侃他们是把特别特别高大上的房间装修出了国有企业的风格,非常的简朴,当时,他跟另外一个合伙人,共用一个很小的房间,然后两张沙发,三四个人在里面就转不开圈,我说九鼎都那么大了,干什么还弄的那么寒碜,他跟我说,要生于忧患,死于安乐。他们一直在创业路上,不想在这方面过多追求,当时我就很忏愧,创业这个东西吧,还真实如果有心的话,就去尝试最艰苦的生活,别让自己有态度的安逸环境。温室里一定扶持不出太多的花朵,就是如此简单命题而已。

  创业方向比努力勤奋更重要

  回到孵化器成功的第二个因素,我个人感觉其实是要有一定可控的资金,创业起步其实,什么都是空的,最主要是需要钱,没有钱谈创业都是扯淡的事情,所以孵化器如果光地段好,如果无法给予资金的话,那么也很少会有人来,这个其实不需要多说的,拥有一定金额的引导型资金,非常有助于帮助一个孵化器早期起步,其实我个人感觉大量的VC机构进行孵化器的操作成功率会更高一些,因为早期资金其实对创业者是具备很强的影响力的,对于注册地址,办公环境等都有很大的影响力,所以,通过资金,让项目更好的聚集在孵化器,创造出更好的创业氛围是相对容易的,但是这里回归到最后,就意味着孵化器资金的背后其实特别还是考验投资能力,没有一定的投资能力,纯粹给钱,其实是即使起了孵化器的氛围,但是到最后都还是归零,赚吆喝,不赚钱的生意是很难持续的。

  所以这里就回到第三个问题,就是孵化器需要具备很强的创业方向的指引,就是必须知道孵化器里的产业方向很重要,想要什么人进来,想投资什么样的公司,如果不加引导,不加甄选,到时候你会发现你把有限的精力、资金都投入到了没有未来的项目里,最终成功率其实也是很低的,即使能成一时,但是也很难持续存在,我们这几年看到不少产业园,其实都是门庭冷落,但是他们曾经也是非常的热闹,为什么呢,因为聚集的产业最终都凋零了,于是一地鸡毛的格局就出现了,各个孵化器,资源就那么点,资金也有限,场地也是如此,最终投向决定了结果如何。好的方向,更容易出现好的结果。

  我们这么多年来在投资领域里,真觉得创业方向比什么都重要,我是个喜欢做趋势性分析的人,为什么研究这个问题,是因为我一直觉得赚大钱不是依赖能力,而是依赖趋势性的机会,前几个月有一篇文章《瞎扯赚大钱的逻辑》转发量近千万,很详细的阐述了这个理由,有意识,无意识的碰到趋势性机会,都可以让你赚大钱,在趋势和方向正确的基础上,才可以谈能力这个命题,方向错误,能力压根就毫无用处。这种案例很多,具体也不细说了。从投资角度来看,个体能力是无法通过事前考察来发现的,而趋势性的机会是可以通过观察推演来思考的,所以,投资往往是看明白一个行业的未来趋势性机会,然后在里面铺开量来投资,不断的提高成功概率的过程,个体的成功,带有很大的偶然性,很难被明确把握。

  我们这几年还算好了,这几年我们投资了大量互联网金融公司,都起来非常迅速,互联网金融过去几年时间,催生了不下三十家估值过五亿美金各类公司,非常的迅速,我们都明显的感觉不是这些行业的从业者本身有多少逆天能力,更不见得他们比别的行业从业者更牛逼,但是为什么起来那么迅速,是因为这三年是互联网金融的三年,同样的能力,同样的努力,在这个领域里成就远远超过其他领域,所以,我们一直认为关注行业的趋势性机会比关注个体更有价值和意义。

  前面说过,这个年代其实资金并不是最重要的,那里都能拿到钱,为什么要来你这里呢?尤其在房地产过剩的情况下,免费的房租、适当的补贴,都可以获得,那么能给创业者更多的方向性的指引,显得就尤为重要了,这个其实并不是为创业者所考虑的,而是孵化器本身需要去思考的终极性命题,因为孵化器最终一定是通过孵化出更多的优秀项目来获得最终的投资收入的,所以,这个能力与其是帮助创业者,更不如说是给自己的,创业路上是非常艰辛的,而且往往非常的迷茫,许多人都很难坚定的认为自己的路是对的,都会犹豫,回头,踟蹰不前,这个时候,你能在他们肩膀上拍拍说,对的,你往前走就是了,一句话给他们带去的可能比十倍的资金都显得更为重要。有时候,其实路也是走出来的,足够的信心给予支撑,其实是很重要的事情。做成特色具备口碑的孵化器,也需要坚定的信念支撑,所以我认为孵化器成功的一个很重要的点其实就是方向的指引也是重中之重,而这个其实也不是一般的孵化器能随随便便建立起的优势,没有长年深度的积累和研究支持,这个护城河其实不容易建立。

  第四个我感觉很重要的点其实是孵化器需要很多的资源汇集,一个孵化器如果具备了好的地段、一定程度的资金,还有能给予一定的方向指引,我感觉基本上能保证实现较高的成功了,但是如果还想能更前一步,我感觉还需要足够的资源支撑。资源其实往往意味着用钱是无法实现的,很多人有钱,但是就是无法获得资源性的供给,这种才叫资源,用钱买得到的东西,一般也就只是钱而已了,资源包括了,更好的业务对接,更快的产品实现,更方便的渠道建设,哪怕更深厚的人脉积累,都是非常重要的事情。资源可以降低你很多成本,也可以极大的加强你业务发展速度,这个其实很重要,在创业过程中,我们发现很多有意思的点,你过去创业过程中,一个人孤独的打拼,没人可以帮你,你积累的用户很难,但是通过孵化器,通过一些简单的扶持,你可以获得很多人的初始帮助,例如众筹,很多人因为是你的股东,自发就成为你的用户,然后自发的帮助你测试,自发的给你很多你可能要花费很多钱才能完善和解决的问题,而且还都是免费的,这些其实就是资源。

  在这里,我到是想强调下所谓人脉资源的一些理解,我感觉其实要区分开来看,很多人跟我说,认识这个,认识那个,其实人的一辈子会认识很多人,但是都最终消失在茫茫人海,千万别太高估人脉的重要性,尤其是一些圈子上场面上的所谓认识,点头而已,很难称得上所谓的资源的,我经常看到很多人跟我说,他的产品在圈子里调研过了,很多人都说喜欢,会用,其实这种调研,毫无意义,很多人都是点头之交而已,当你问他会不会用,感觉如何,你会发现,越是不熟悉的人,越会跟你说不错,不是因为真觉得不错,而是觉得没必要来跟你较真,要测试一个东西,好还是不好,就直接问他给不给钱,会不会投资就行了,很多说好的好的人,其实到最后掏钱的时候,都不说话了。这个就是所谓的人脉资源。必须清醒认识。

  我这几年见过无数的人,认识无数的行业领袖,高官精英,其实绝大部分,都只是所谓认识罢了,没有什么交集,他们也不记得我,我也想不起他们,回到最后,只是因为大家没有什么可以被互换的利益,所以也就消失在茫茫人海了,我们说资源,很大程度上要能被你随时可获得和使用的东西,这个的前提条件往往就是需要你自己具备可被交换的东西,例如人家来找你谈天,你要能给予人家足够的回报,对得起他浪费时间跟你瞎扯,你如果不具备这个能力,也就是一次两次的交往而已,深入不起来,真有什么事情,也很难帮上你的。

  从这个角度来看,我其实是很鄙视所谓混圈子的人,所谓混圈子,很多时候是需要相匹配的地位的,否则就是每天都在混,看上去跟谁都熟悉,实际上跟谁都不熟,现在很多圈子,回到最后都是吹牛逼扯淡的地方,一帮日子还不错的人,天天凑一起,每天装逼得瑟,来证明自己优越感的地方,哪怕已经负债累累了,还非要证明自己的过得不错,来换取一些优越感,人前风光,人后沧桑的事情,有啥意义呢?撇开生活,就工作而言,人去做一件事情,要么能学到东西,要么能获得回报,两个都没有,没意思,所以很多人混圈子学到的东西,都只学会到了如何装逼吹牛,却学不到任何东西,这就是跟比你有钱的人一起的结果,因为他比你有钱,你其实是被附属的,你并不重要,人家请你吃顿饭,那叫看得起你,你毫无价值,是陪衬他优越的附属品,所以,我建议要学东西的人,还是多跟会谈干货的人在一起,会去思考,会去深入研究社会的人,别每天混圈子。毫无意义。资源的变现,前提是需要你有足够的交换价值,你要有值得人家为你提供资源的可能性,帮忙这个东西,互为有价值就是顺其自然的事情了,最怕就是勉强和为难,不可维系,所以要有资源的变现,前提就是你要做的很好,你有好的项目,好的创业团队,好的想法,好的思路,好的方向,那么资源容易堆积,我们见过太多的人,来来回回就那么点事情,你怎么堆也堆积不出太多的东西。

  投资、交易

  最后,我还是想说以下,什么是投资,什么是交易,这个问题。我在杭州的茶馆,欢迎全国各地的创业者来创业,我都免费给他们办公,不收取任何的费用,很多人都说,为什么不收呢,总要象征性收点吧,也有很多人认为是竞争需要,所以不得不免费,其实,真不是,只是因为我想区分开交易和投资这两个不同的概念。

  我曾经被人问怎么看张磊给耶鲁大学捐款的事情,我不知道张磊大学时候是否收费了,我自己读大学时候是缴纳了学费的,我说,因为国内大学收取了我学费,所以,他教育我知识,培养我成才,这个是天经地义的,我再好,其实都是大学该交给我的,这个就属于交易行为,他不是一个投资行为,但是有个学校如果不收取我学费,免费教育我,这个时候,我哪怕稍微好一点,都会感激学校,因为这不是交易,他们是在投资我,我好的时候,我有责任有义务在我好的时候回馈他们。

  当年张磊捐款给耶鲁的时候,说过耶鲁改变了他的一生,因为他在很茫然的时候,耶鲁大学给他寄来了OFFER还给了他全额奖学金,使得他能很好的在美国生活学习,所以,这种就是投资行为,给他钱,让他读书,他不能不回馈。交易永远只能赚短期利益,而投资可以让你获得更远的回报,世界上,从来不存在现在好,未来也好的事情,一般都只能两个选一个,你选了现在好,那就会失去未来,你选了未来,往往要放弃当下,当然放弃了当下,也不一定会有未来,但是总归有可能性的.

  所以,我不想因为可以忽略不计的房租收入,把我未来的可观的收益给丢了,投资就是看五年到十年的事情,没必要太计较,对于创业的人来说,既然你都给了那么多了,何必在多要房租呢?我们总觉得中国教育出了问题,把投资变成了交易,所以就使得人往往在乎短期收益,忽略和放弃了长期价值,这个是很可悲的事情,学校应该是做长期投资的事情,不能做短期博弈。其实这里我感觉还是要区分一个度的问题,所谓投资,一定要投资在具备潜力的人基础上,创业角度来看,更低的出身,更勤奋的姿态,更好学的基础,都是值得你投资的理由,你要学会跟这些人做长期投资,但是要跟那些注重当下,没有成长的人做交易,交易不是目的,交易是投资的手段,让你能坚持的更久,这里如何辨别和区分是个难点,世界上其实绝大部分的人其实是只能做交易的,但是一定会出现很多的可被投资的人,这个也很重要。

  另外,回到孵化器来看,我感觉世界上,绝大部分的孵化器最终是很难被规模化的,因为大多数成功所具备的能力条件都不是能被规模复制,导致,孵化器要做产业化的可能性很小,点状分布的可能性会更大,所以,政府没必要一股脑的要去扶持大的,扶持也扶持不出来,政府其实就是做好孵化器的孵化器,帮助更多的孵化器能在这个时代里活得更好就可以了。确切说,我们大量的孵化器都是自己拿钱出来做的,他是因为看到这个行业里的机会,政府去做未必会比他们做的更好,曾经有一段时间,一些政府的人很热心,每天提很多的建议给我,让我按照他的意思去做,我都会很不客气的回敬,如果我们这些长期在市场里摸爬滚打,被骗了无数钱的人,都还竞争不过你们这些每天在办公室写调研材料人的话,我感觉我也可以退出这个行业了,要相信总是有很多行业门槛和壁垒不是轻松可以被击破的,专业就是专业,不是几天几个月就能被打掉的,政府有政府的优势,坚持好自己的定位,可能眼界比我们更开阔,思维高度更高,但是在具体的行业里,其实一定没有我们自己扎的深,真没必要干涉太多。

  关于为什么生孩子

  最后的最后,我再讲个生孩子的问题,我这几年在想人为什么要在二十几岁、三十几岁生孩子,其实还真是非常有道理的事情,人在最好的时候生孩子,就有能力抚养他成长,孩子长大成人了,你也就可以去死了,生命就得到了延续,没有人是可以指望自己来延长自己的生命的,生命的传承往往是通过孩子的出生来实现的。

  那么我们在想下去,如果你八十几岁生孩子,那么意味着你孩子没长大,你可能就死了,于是你孩子也跟着一起死,另外,如果你二十几三十几生了孩子,却想着自己把孩子一直养着,养到七十几八十几,那我估计最终结果也是两个一起死的结果。

  这个话题说明了什么呢?说明了其实人总是会死的,巅峰期会过去,巅峰期过去以后,你还想继续保持你的一流的精力,过人的判断其实是难度很大的,人无法在任何一个年代都获得成功,每个人成功背后都有特定的年代特征的,是时代创造了伟大的人物,伟大的人物让时代更加璀璨,我们说乔布斯的出现,其实前提先要考虑到3G、4G的出现,让手机能轻松连接网络,这个时候苹果手机成为了伟大的产品,但是在没有网络的时代,苹果就是个砖头而已,但是3G\4G不是我们乔布斯创造的,是这个时代无数的工程师努力的结果,所以一个成功人想时刻保持成功本身就是不可能的事情,那怎么保持自己优势呢?其实就是要学会生孩子。

  在自己最好的时候,生出更多的孩子,一个不够,要多生孩子,为什么不够,因为生一个很可能会夭折,也可能坑爹,而且事实也是,生的越少,越容易坑爹,所以,一定要多生几个,才能让自己的孩子在竞争中,不断的成长,这样你死了,你的生命可以得到延续,千万别到七老八十的时候在想到生孩子,因为那可能意味着你们都会一起死。也千万别生了一个孩子以后,想着养着他到死,那也是一起死的结果,我们很多企业家想不明白,每次都跟我说,这个企业跟自己孩子一样,不舍得放手,我说不放手就一起死呗,孩子大了,要么让他生孩子去,要么你自己生孩子去。多生几个,多好啊。干什么守着不放呢?看上去是爱她,实际上就是害她,你自己明明已经不行了,跟不上这个时代了,还非得觉得自己无所不能,这个不是找死是什么呢?这种爱本质其实是自私。

  年纪大了,企业老了,一定要有这个觉悟,学会放手,别想着控制,一定要努力生出那些会把你搞死的孩子去,这样你死了,搞死你的企业其实也还是你的,这个在美国很普遍,你看雅虎自己老了,就投资了个阿里,现在你去看看,他老年生活现在过的多好啊,没钱了就套现一点,没钱了就套现一点,说不定能焕发第二春在多生出几个孩子,也不一定,还有富国银行,投资了LENDINGCLUB,搞不死你,就投资你,这种简单的道理,还是要想明白。

  相关阅读:今年90%的孵化器会死 因为创业者质量跟不上(上篇)

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