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www.龙8国际.com:泡沫化现型?对中国A股“漂亮50”的反思

  2017-03-29 08:41  来源:点拾投资  我来投稿  我要评论

www.龙8国际.com,在揭晓奥斯卡最佳影片奖时,现场出现乌龙。特朗普可能有野心在他的任内、甚至是就在第一任期的前半段解决伊斯兰国问题伊斯兰国相对来说已进入强弩之末,解决它是相对性价比较高的外交政策,将是特朗普在外交上的重大政绩。它会让国企及全社会对国企改革树立更加坚定的信心,迎难而上,攻坚克难,使国企迸发出更大发展潜能,战胜经营道路上的各种困难。美国雪城大学的布莱尔电视和流行文化中心主任罗伯特·汤姆森表示:科尔伯特的节目变得在政治上更加咄咄逼人。

齐乐娱乐手机版官网,他还表示,由于美国贸易代表提名人罗伯特·莱特希泽的任命尚未获得国会批准,现在讨论美国贸易政策为时尚早。  “与国外主流火箭相比,我国现役的长征系列运载火箭虽然成本低,但随着中国太空探索活动日益增多,降低火箭成本也势在必行。  方案提出,按照《中国制造2025》总体部署,落实新能源汽车发展战略目标,将发挥企业主体作用,加大政策扶持力度,完善协同创新体系,突破关键核心技术,加快形成具有国际竞争力的动力电池产业体系。这个答案显然难以满足国际媒体尤其是日韩媒体的好奇心,也无法令他们停止猜想。

www.龙8国际.com,对采用常规通用技术标准的政府投资工程,在原则上实行最低价中标的同时,有效发挥履约担保的作用,防止恶意低价中标,确保工程投资不超预算。工业企业使用循环利用包装箱包装生产的卷烟总数量为158.46万箱,完成全年循环利用任务总量的11.32%,同比下降3.1个百分点。重建古代丝绸之路和香料之路的一带一路倡议旨在重新开通这些经济走廊,为曾经吸引远近各国来到中央王国的商业主义重新注入活力。席格后来从该案中获得灵感,创作了《卡姆登裸女》系列。

  12.12年度营销活动开抢,入驻就送超级大礼,马上咨询

  到了今天,市场又重新再说估值,说“漂亮50”,每次聚会如果手里没有茅台,没有白酒家电,就感觉低人一等。

  小到我们的投资,大到我们的生命,很多事情都是在轮回。自然规律的黑夜和白天,太极中的阴阳交错都是。我们A股的投资,在过去几年也在经历这种轮回。记得在2013和2014年,你和大家一谈基本面,就是输在了起跑线。

  那时候市场流行的是商业模式,是通过收并购长大的资产证券化,是行业逻辑,是互联网流量思维。那时候企业最好不要赚钱,因为互联网的特征就是免费。到了今天,市场又重新再说估值,说“漂亮50”,每次聚会如果手里没有茅台,没有白酒家电,就感觉低人一等。当全世界都在讨论中国的“漂亮50”时,我们反而会去反思,“漂亮50”是否进入的泡沫阶段。

  漂亮50的时代背景

  点拾曾发过一篇文章,深度分析了目前的整个经济环境,流动性都非常适合“漂亮50”的投资方法。当时我们的逻辑基于几大经济基本面因素:1)经历了2015年去杠杆之后,整体的风险偏好下降,风险资产价格会回落;2)长期看,中国的好公司很稀缺,应该获得估值溢价;3)行业集中度会在经济增长稳定的阶段不断提高;4)整体市场缺少亮点,类熊市特征,市场关注度会聚焦。

  所以在一年前,我们并不是自下而上,而是自上而下以一种风格的角度推荐了“漂亮50”这个版块。在我们文章推出后,A股的“漂亮50”公司也继续上涨:贵州茅台涨幅60%,老板电器涨幅44%,索菲亚涨幅41%,恒瑞医药涨幅36%,海康威视涨幅62%,。

  我们再来看看“漂亮50”源头美国当年的红大背景:高增长,低通胀。60年代的时候,美国GDP为4.6%,对应2.3%的通胀;欧洲GDP为5.2%,对应3.2%的通胀。而另一个美国成长股的黄金期90年代网络股泡沫的宏观大背景也和那时候很像。

  从时代背景角度看,“漂亮50”往往诞生于经济转型,低通胀的时代。在美国的60年代,正好从之前的战后重建过度到80年代的婴儿潮消费,经济增长模式在发生比较大的变化。此时大家都意识到依靠基建的方式无法持续推动美国经济,但新经济的苗头还没看到。从这点看,美国“漂亮50”和目前中国经济的时代背景非常类似。当大家找不到Beta的方向时,同时又面临持有现金不断贬值风险,这时候将手上的现金持有买入各行各业的龙头公司,会是一种最安全的做法。

  中国“漂亮50”未来的分化和泡沫演变

  我认为中国的“漂亮50”模式已经进入了泡沫阶段,未来的发展将延续任何一次泡沫的演变和发展,也就是索罗斯说的Boom to Burst。在任何一次轮回中,市场都会进入某个亢奋的阶段。所以我无法保证“漂亮50”模式在未来3-6个的表现,甚至从历史的每一次轮回看,大概率还会继续上涨。但是之后的上涨可能更多来自于泡沫中的游泳了。

  首先,中国的“漂亮50”和美国的“漂亮50”完全不同。

  中国的“漂亮50”基本上就是消费股,所以前几天看了广发证券策略陈杰的报告,他直接用消费和家电的估值来做历史对比。这点我也很认同。在A股的“漂亮50”基本上是白酒+家电,再叠加海康,歌儿股份这类电子股。更有趣的是,中国历史上其实炒作过好几次“漂亮50”主体,其中的成分股经常有变化。

  根据凌鹏的研究,其实在2003到2004年第一次炒作时,那时候是双汇,万科,中兴通讯,烟台万华,同仁堂,金融街等。到了2012到2013年,又增加了海康,大华,杰瑞,富瑞特装,碧水源等。但是如果我们看下图,美国的“漂亮50”就是同一批股票。即使到今天,这批股票中的大部分公司还是各个行业的龙头。也就是说,60年代选出来的“漂亮50”让投资者最后吃药的概率并不高。这些公司中出现地雷,以及停止增长的公司并不多。造成他们下跌的最大原因还是过高的估值。这也让这些公司通过很长时间的跑输来消化高估值。而之后,在1982年开始的美国最大一波牛市中(指数从1000点上涨到了10000点以上),这些“漂亮50”公司依然是这波牛市中的生力军。

  从行业分布上我们也能看到,美国的“漂亮50”行业分布很广,是真正各个行业中的龙头股。不仅仅有消费,还有医药,机械,科技,化工,金融等等。中国的“漂亮50”更集中在消费属性的领域。

  A股“漂亮50”更多是一种交易上的smart-beta

  “漂亮50”从本质上应该是一种alpha选股模式,从各个行业中挑选出竞争力最强的一批公司,认为他们长期增长会超越行业增速,获得超额收益。但是在目前的A股,“漂亮50”更多带有一种Beta属性。市场从相信故事转向相信业绩,但是这种业绩并不对应估值。许多买入茅台,老板电器,索菲亚的投资者并没有对公司基本面有深入研究,而是基于这批龙头股还能上涨的逻辑。从交易的行为金融学来看,这本身就是一种希望捕获Beta的动力。同时,正因为这批公司在被不断买入后出现了上涨,又强化了投资者的这种逻辑。白酒,家电中的好公司就应该上涨,茅台就应该获得远超行业同行的估值。但是没有人计算过到多少估值是合理的,甚至这些企业的市值天花板在哪里。而事实上,除了茅台,老板这些企业,很多公司的护城河还没有那么深

  在A股,“漂亮50”更类似于一种标签,对应的是能够长期业绩增长的好公司。这些好公司本身没有太大问题,但是一旦被打上了某种标签,就会带上典型的A股博弈特征。也就是说,从本质看今天的“漂亮50”标签,和当年的“互联网入口”,各类XXX金融标签是类似的,成为了一种炒作的题材。甚至在A股,完全没有美国当年完整的“漂亮50”名单,而是随着时间和经济周期不同,在发生变化。可能类似于茅台,云南白药,格力电器,美的集团,这些长期业绩增长的好公司会一直在名单中,但是其他公司会不断发生变化。

  刺破“漂亮50”泡沫的几个驱动力

  What goes up, must come down. This is the law of gravity。

  在几百年前,牛顿爵士就定义了地心引力规则,无论是个体,还是公司,甚至整个国家,最终都无法在时间长河中摆脱地心引力对我们的约束。那么未来刺破“漂亮50”泡沫的会有哪几个驱动力呢?

  首先,我前面说过“漂亮50”能起来的背景就是高增长,低通胀。未来一旦通胀起来,将成为刺破“漂亮50”的宏观因素。我看到广发证券策略陈杰的研究中也提到,1973年6月开始美国通胀起来,经济增速再次下滑,进入了典型的滞胀周期。从美林时钟上看,滞胀周期是非常不利于权益资产表现的,中国过去十年我印象比较深的就是2008和2011年,其中2011年出现股债双杀,2008年也是一轮大熊市。

  其次,高估值的压力。到了1972年的时候,“漂亮50”的估值都到了所谓的市梦率。宝丽来达到了90倍,麦当劳85倍,迪斯尼82倍。而当初标普500平均的市盈率为33倍。而从1973到1979年的大熊市里,大部分“漂亮50”公司都大幅跑输市场。比如“漂亮50”中的龙头股IBM(当初的代号是I BuyMoney)股价在那段时间下跌了21%,跑输市场13个点。这个还是好的,像零售龙头JC Penny下跌了71%,跑输市场68个点。只有两大油服巨头Schlumberger和Haliburton取得了79%-239%的涨幅。漂亮50在这个6年的熊市中,整体下跌了23%,跑输市场15%。

  第三,机构持仓过大。从纯资金面博弈的角度看,当一个股票没有买盘以后,其股价也自然见顶了。美国“漂亮50”突然见顶也和机构都买满了有关。当年这些股票都号称one decision股票。大意是,想都不要想,买入持有就行。一旦市场所有人都买满了,这些股票也就见顶了。对于中国机构的持仓,我没有做过多少量化研究。目前看,可能机构的持仓还不是最多的。但最近和朋友交流,几乎所有人多多少少都持有其中的一些公司。

  第四,伪龙头公司的估值溢价。如果一个公司真的能够不断获得市场份额,在一个市场化环境下获得集中度提高,那么他们应该获得估值溢价。中国最市场化的行业其实就是互联网。所以过去一年多在流量红利结束后,我们看到的是大平台互联网公司业绩增长越来越好,而许多VC投资的创业小公司一个比一个难以生存。

  腾讯,阿里,网易,微博,陌陌的市场份额提升,也给他们带来了合理的估值溢价。但是在许多行业,其实不完全市场化。比如一些医药,比如地域性强的白酒。关键还是看这个产品是2C还是2B的。如果2C,结合强品牌容易做到集中度提高。如果2B,结合好的产品,也能提高集中度(类似于海康)。但是我相信,市场认为的“漂亮50”中,还是有一些伪龙头企业。这些公司更多被打上了某种标签,这种标签类的估值溢价,最终会在潮水退去后伤害投资人。

  甚至,从美国的教训中发现,高估值的代价就是长期消化。美国在90年也有过一次新“漂亮50”炒作。在2000年鼎盛时期,美国市值最大的前20家公司占据了市场40%的份额。然而从2000年到2012年的十二年时间中,这些公司取得了-1%的收益。成为了实实在在的僵尸股。这些公司包括鼎鼎大名的沃尔玛,微软,辉瑞等。

  一切皆是轮回

  从一个长周期来看,A股有明显的没几年换一种风格的状态。2012年下半年到2015年上半年,创业板小股票的上涨让价值投资者无从应对。特别是2014年白马股集体暴跌,当时我写过一篇文章:白马股暴跌,因为你的初恋已过。那个时候,市场将的是商业模式,一谈基本上就是输在起跑线。从2015年下半年开始,到今天又成了价值股的天下。过去我们也会在不同阶段,得出不同结论,那些结论在特定的时间点看上去又如此正确无比。今天,在看了更多的史书,经历了更多的周期后,我更愿意相信这一切都是某种轮回。2007到2009年的周期轮动,2010到2012年的医药消费,2013到2015上半年的互联网TMT,2015年去杠杆之后到今天的价值成长。在不同阶段,市场都有不同特征的主线。

  长期看,只有两点是不变的。人性中的情绪特征。无论在任何时间点,人性都很难发生质的变化。情绪的狂热,发散到最后的一致性预期,索罗斯的反身性在A股看都是如此有效。其次,就是以长周期维度去做投资,基于行业,公司的基本面,产业背景和逻辑。无论价值还是成长,在长周期的维度都能取得优秀的收益率。

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