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www.龙8国际.com:红利逝去、进入冰封期的手机市场,该以何种姿势迎接2018?

  2018-01-01 11:24  来源:钛媒体  我来投稿  我要评论

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  摘要: 叠加型红利驱动逝去,手机市场正在进入一个并不美好的冰封期,略显稳定的盘面下依然暗潮涌动,最重要的是这依然是一个充满活力的市场,你选择以什么样的姿势去面对她:道、法、术、器、势。

  

题图来自:视觉中国

 

  题图来自:视觉中国

  一、那些兴起与消逝的红利驱动的手机市场激情燃烧岁月

  盘点那些年刺激手机市场繁荣的一个又一个红利兴起与消失,手机市场激情燃烧的岁月是如此诱人。

  国内手机市场1996年出现GSM手机;2001年模拟机退市;2003 -04年,国产力量进入第一个巅峰期-功能机;2006年,GSM手机低端普及化;2008-09年山寨机步入巅峰。2009-10年是3G元年也是智能机启动期,2011年智能机销量快速攀升,2012-13年则是运营商投资拉动的激情岁月。这个时期,在功能机智能化的大主题下,有运营商网络2G升3G与运营商定制模式的投资拉动两大助推,催生了手机市场的黄金岁月,可谓遍地黄金只要你来。

  2014年开始已经有厂商开始喊出运营商定制化,积极拥抱互联网红利,运营商定制真是某些厂商下滑的原罪吗,其实不完全是,顶多算是外因,不要奢望每一次都踏准节奏,后来的线上/线下红利的节奏之争更是印证了这一点。

  手机圈的互联网红利从2010年萌芽到2015年进入巅峰时刻,催生了互联网手机大潮,互联网手机伴随小米的火箭蹿升的神化到快速陨落的鞭挞,可谓大戏迭出,但是互联网模式对于手机行业思维、体验等改变是不应被磨灭的。

  2015-17年的低线升级红利时代,诞生了OPPO、vivo圣经,伴随的是业内对互联网模式负面效应的讨伐与是否追逐风口的大讨论。大潮退去后,荣耀青出于蓝走出了自己,而小米补课后进化到泛生态新零售阶段。需要特别注意的是2014-2017年叠加的是运营商3升4的网络升级驱动红利、安卓阵营硬件配置的极速升级竞赛。

  回首历史,我们看到每一次红利的兴起与消失都推动了手机行业的螺旋上升,大江东去,不断有新人进入带来新鲜血液,也不断有旧品牌难以适应新形势而黯然离场,但他们都是推动手机行业前进的驱动力。

  二、叠加型红利驱动逝去,手机市场正在进入一个并不美好的冰封期

  逝去的总是令人想念,特别是面对困境时,现在无论业界还是媒体应该是达成共识了,那就是手机市场激情燃烧的黄金岁月已经过去,各个环节都已感受到市场的寒意,无论是从资本市场、上游供应链还是已经对新机审美麻木。问题在于我们即将进入的并不美好的手机市场新阶段到底会有多长?

  1、市场大盘进入相对稳定期,等待下一个叠加红利驱动来临

  回首过去,是为了更好的预见未来。过去十多年手机市场的高速增长的每个时期,都有多个叠加红利因素驱动,而现在我们正处于这个转折期,多轮驱动结束,或许我们正在进入一个长期的平台期,等待下一个叠加红利期的到来。

  从手机市场增量而言,一直都是新用户购机与存量老用户换机,贯穿其中的是消费支出能力。前者更多取决于人口红利,存量换机主要取决于看换机驱动因素,包括手机硬件技术驱动、渠道模式推动、运营商网络换代升级等。

  人口方面,截止2017年10月底全国移动用户已达14.03亿,超过13.8亿人口数量,移动用户渗透率100%+(工信部数据),中国市场手机普及率接近100%,如果未来苹果推出了双卡手机,那么一人双机率仍将走低。

  对于存量换机的叠加驱动因素,前述所言基本已经或者正在消褪。2017年国内市场不景气的背后的原因之一就是2升3驱动力的减弱,国内4G渗透率将接近80%。普遍寄予厚望的全面屏、AI并未达预期,2018年驱动用户换机的技术因素真正临界点并未来临,或许需要等待5G、柔性屏、电池技术的突破红利叠加,这个时间点或许在2020年前后。在此之前或可称之为5G前的市场静默期,大盘相对稳定,不会大跌或者大涨。

  好消息在于上一波换机高潮是2015年H2到2016年的低线升级,如果重度游戏应用进一步普及,叠加22个月的换机周期、Almost全面屏的进一步进化,那么2018年下半年或许有新的小机遇期。

  2、主动性升级将减速,市场结构调整正在触及天花板,不宜再抱有惯性升级预期

  伴随消费升级进程,市场均价从2015年的千元+快速攀升到2017年下半年的2000+,市场重心从千元上下来到2000+,2000以上市场份额40%左右。与此对应的是,千元以下市场从2009-11年的近70%下滑到2017年30%以下, 600元以下更是从40%持续下滑到10%。

  从需求端,智能手机从通信工具到生活助手转变、消费者的高品质要求持续提升,消费者支出预算攀升;在供给侧,上游屏幕、存储等关键器件的结构性缺货带来成本压力加大,厂商主动提价。两相比较,2000元档产品成为市场新宠中需求端主动性升级因素略大。

  但,需要特别引起重视的是,过去两年的消费升级已经透支了消费能力(包括分期付等信用透支消费的助力),在市场均价来到消费者可接受价格上限时(国民收入增长水平决定消费支出),主动性升级趋势将减弱,过快的价格攀升如持续不能与体验/价值提升匹配,新的市场风险加剧。在未来相当长一段时间内,整体价位区间不宜再抱有大的惯性升级预期。

  3、市场格局将进一步不均衡,TOP厂商、优秀机型的虹吸效应加剧,进入大象起舞阶段

  TOP5品牌、机型的集中度日益集中,马太效应趋势加剧,2017年TOP5品牌市场份额超过70%,700以上市场TOP10品牌市场份额均超过90%。

  这是最好的阶段,对于主导品牌而言(只要时刻保持敬畏之心,少闹XX门);这是最坏的阶段,对于逆袭者而言夹缝中生存空间被持续挤压。未来的手机市场格局将呈现更多的是不均衡性。2018年处于空窗期,更是给厂商留下了一个适应窗口期,是走是留,其实是到了抉择的时候了,毕竟关键是要留得青山在。

  手机产业链发展至今,早已经成为技术与资本双轮驱动的产业,升级换代的技术门槛与资金门槛导致上游逐步进入寡头竞争。而,手机厂商这个环节正在进入寡头竞争阶段,创新更多由大企业驱动,在寡头时代夹缝中的小而美的大创新日益难驾驭,比如人工智能;再比如更多依靠供应链的硬件创新,小厂商不敢奢望,毕竟量大于天。

  4、5G是之一但不是救命稻草,大周期上5G必须叠加重度应用才能形成叠加红利效应;历史经验看,厂商不能指望5G技术引领期去逆袭、去弥补短板坑

  按照业界进度,5G会在2020年进入规模部署期,但不要过于乐观看待5G对手机市场的影响。对于消费者的网络需求而言4G+已然过剩,对于5G更多的期待在于智能汽车、物联网等领域。网络升级换代必然会加速用户换机,特别是在运营商KPI驱动下(运营商会一直这样吗?),终端一贯先行并且过剩,但如果在5G手机上不能有令人amazing的应用,依然难形成叠加型红利效应。幸好,我们还有2-3年的探索时间。

  在5G准备期,致力于领先一步的手机厂商,必须满足:1、研发投入;2、运营商紧密合作,否则有些坑是躲不过去的。不想吃头啖汤也不要紧,历史经验表明,网络技术升级换代的技术引领期大约6个月,但是如果一个厂商有明显短板,5G技术领先也拉不起来填不了坑,因此也不宜过于乐观看待5G机会窗口。

  三、在手机市场冰封期里,我们应该做些什么?

  手机市场告别高速发展期后,处于不同市场位置的厂商需要找到适合生存的发展模式,共同的一点是从粗放式向精细化、从增量扩张到重存量求生存,只有在寒冬里生存下来才能等到下一个爆发周期。

  在寒冬里,光鲜的年终总结背后,自己棉袄厚不厚,永远是冷暖自知。

  1、角逐中高端市场树立引领之道,自研芯片创新成为共同选择;做强低端规模筑堤坝,大势不好时用户更需要高质量低价产品

  高端市场是TOP厂商引领力之争,是品牌、创新、供应链、生态的综合比拼,品牌大势、产品创新是直面客户,渠道、供应链两翼支撑,生态驱动多方共赢可持续发展。(注:市场重心上移后,这条价格线相应可以划到4000元。)

  高端市场玩家竞争,自研芯片成为引领力的最大特征,苹果、华为、三星无不如此,苹果、华为引领AI芯之争,三星则终于补上了全网通短板,小米芯仍需继续澎湃(尚不能产生品牌拉力)。

  悄然间,高通8系列芯片已成失意人,基带有被苹果舍弃的风险(江湖传言并非全是空穴来风),与三星之间竞合博弈不断,新贵OPPO、vivo更多采用6系列次旗舰芯片,而小米尚不足以撼动高端市场,高端市场的小米与高通在2018年有更多的理由相互支持前行。

  同时,高通失意旗舰芯片市场、MTK始终难得其门,在高通强化6系列次旗舰竞争力加大OPPO、vivo合作力度将直接挤压MTK中档芯片生存空间,其中的传导竞争对于芯片市场格局的影响值得观察。在everything都同质化的手机市场,自研芯的竞争力很可能成为高端市场玩家的敲门砖与成败关键。

  在向上走突破追求利润调结构的同时,不能忘了固本,规模永远是手机厂商的生存之本,不重视低价市场的玩家将会受到市场的惩罚。低端的根本在于规模壁垒,在于满足发展不平衡的不同区域不同层级用户对美好生活需求的向往,他们也需要高品质体验的产品,目前700元以下市场TOP10品牌集中度不足50%,主导品牌大有可为。所以,需要为华为加大荣耀资源守北坡点赞,千金一掷求份额上规模,大势战略上把握清晰。

  越过国内红海,放眼全球,从发展阶段上看,很多亚非拉兄弟仍处于几年前的国内手机市场阶段,荣耀、OPPO、vivo、小米等主导品牌掀起的新一轮进军海外潮,通过复制国内成熟的打法,有效了实现国内低端产品产能的海外转移,这一进程将继续在未来2-3年大干快上,即便是苹果推出廉价版依然难以阻挡(毕竟价格依然高高在上)。

  2、从卖手机看销量向客户经营转变,而客户经营的核心在于存量经营与泛智能拓展

  客户经营这个词相信会越来越多的频次出现在手机厂商的口中,之前更多是关心新增,毕竟主业是卖手机,手机卖出去了就是王道,卖出后管他流失不流失的。相信厂商也会越来越关心净增,都在说粉丝经营,但实际上大多都空有虚名。

  当一个市场进入存量时代后,最大的主题就是存量维系,目标当然就是自己的不流失,别人都跑到我碗里。关注自己的用户从哪里来,为什么会选择自己,流向哪里去,为什么会流失,用户是有惰性的,如果不是被伤的太深,谁又愿意折腾呢?这些流向的背后会给经营带来最直接的情报输入,当然还有被谈烂、诟病但又都想做的精准营销

  如果说要以客户经营为核心,用户的需求就是号角的话,那么泛智能终端就绕不开了。小米在前,荣耀在后,看上去魅族、锤子都在蠢蠢欲动,这些本质上已经不能称为手机厂商的本质工作,为什么要做呢?

  我个人理解,厂商进军泛智能构筑生态的直接驱动力之一是客户经营,是互联网用户经营思维或者平台化思维的体现,光鲜的讲是为了满足用户日益增长的多品类美好生活需求,用户需求在哪里,产品就拓展到哪里,潜在的大白话还有手机已经无利可图了,用户在这里,手机这一关键触点在手,怎能拱手把泛智能的蛋糕拱手送于他人,何况是做过手机后再做泛智能是降维的曾经沧海。

  3、找外援,山不转水转,也许又到了一个与运营商共舞的时刻

  在寒冬里,谁是厂商的好外援呢?也许运营商这个旧情人很好。当年某些厂商曾经有一个去运营商化的阶段,那么对于终端厂商而言,首先需要思考的是最应该去的到底是什么?运营商的变化是什么?与运营商合作什么,坚持什么?首先,是要不违大势,满足人民群众对美好生活的向往的需求:一部手机、2个卡槽、三网通用、不限量随意用(这个够666)。

  其实,运营商一直在那里,在每个时期一直有厂商受益颇丰,在血雨腥风的存量市场时代,你会发现与你若即若离的她仍然是你的最佳选择之一。

  运营商的渠道一直在那里,并且在不断进级中,作为拥有上万家线下门店,不管你是新零售还是旧零售,都显然不可小觑。

  运营商的网络一直都在那里,致力于提供优秀通信体验的厂商,不和运营商(及其评测机构)研发合作,不去做端到端的体验优化提升,何谈通信性能体验提升,作为specail One的那个苹果一直在静悄悄的干着。

  运营商的政策、资金,都是增量,管你理不理,它都在哪里,你不去合作,自然有别的厂商去合作,拿了挖走你的目标客户。

  运营商的数据一直都在那里,你的用户就在那个网里,你不存量经营,那别人就会去拿走。

  4、产品创新规划方面,微利时代,激励因素与保健因素之间的平衡很重要

  前述,在没有新的叠加型红利产生前,市场将维持平台期,在没有大的趋势来临时,意味着引领者无法进一步拉大差距,这是追赶者蓄力与补短的绝佳阶段。

  在成本居高不下、产品日趋微利的大势下,厂商必须对新技术应用规划做好有效区隔,哪些是激励因素,哪些是保健因素?激励因素产生炫耀性体验(增加成本、溢价),保健因素保证用户满意度(缺失则购买欲、美誉度急降)。

  那些在2018年不要奢望大规模商用(强调规模化)的炫酷/实验性技术就不要去YY了,比如柔性屏、石墨烯电池,真心期待,但在2018年大规模应用的概率不大。材质上,玻璃设计创新依然将是主流;快充、双摄早已是千元+标配;相比无线充电在效率上已经ok但仍可能处于不温不火,无线蓝牙耳机对用户的体验提升更显性更值得重点关注。

  全面屏

  2017年18:9成为全面屏的关键衡量指标,虽有争议但不否认其对视感、体验的提升,正快速普及变成消费者购机的保健因素。虽然苹果的流海设计(U形切割)颇多争议,但2018年的安卓旗舰产品貌似也没有太多别的选择(三星除外),并且依然受限于激光切割设备供给能力。

  预估厂商的全面屏方案选择上,旗舰机采用AMOLED屏、In-cell+TDDI、异型切割方案;中档机采用AMOLED/LTPS屏、In-cell+TDDI方案;低端则可能更多选择a-Si屏+双芯片方案。

  生物识别

  屏下指纹已经预热太久,光学方案与超声波方案之间难言哪家更快,2018年有望真正商用,规模方面难言乐观,全面屏+屏下指纹可以在市场飞一会儿。人脸识别解锁已经成熟,但是支付尚存难点。考虑到成本与体验进展,所谓去指纹化目前看至少在未来2年尚难以实现,两者将持续并存。

  摄像头

  虽然一直有争议,但双摄已经是千元+市场的标配。AI+对拍照体验的提升有望向中档机渗透,在双摄、色彩、暗光、自拍等领域相继被挖掘成主打卖点外,除了品牌识别度外拍照领域的竞争面临卖点真空。

  跟随苹果脚步,3D感测将是安卓阵营追赶的热点,高通、舜禹、欧菲光等方案的成熟有望缩短与苹果的差距。

  存储

  总体而言,这一波从2015年开始的行业景气周期即将到达拐点。3D NAND良率提升,国产NAND(长江存储)有望破冰入市将加速低端产品降价,NAND行业将率先到达拐点。DRAM产业由于三星、海力士、美光三强垄断,2018年仍处于景气高峰。虽然智能手机需求减缓、容量升级减慢,但得益于数据中心、物联网等需求,DRAM行业整体维持高景气,进入平稳期。

  配置上,千元3GB+64GB起步、高端6GB+256GB的搭配将会持续,难以继续大幅增配,LPDDR4(x)、Emmc5.x向中档渗透,UFS2.1在高端普及。

  人工智能

  高通AI路线与华为、苹果NPU路线的差异之争,背景之一也是因为当前端侧AI场景需求并不丰富,体验提升并不显性。人工智能仍将是2018年的热点,但其实真正能将人工智能做成竞争力卖点的厂商并不多,这是技术引领者拉开差距的窗口期。

  AI作为使能环节,对用户是隐形的,用户是通过场景/应用去体验AI,未来是AI in ALL走向ALL in AI。 对于引领者而言,AI环节的竞争正快速从“0到1”有没有的显性差异竞争力到“1到多”是否丰富提升体验的轨道上,依附于生态更是生态竞争的助推器。

  写在最后

  送别2017(鸡飞),迎来2018(狗跳),手机市场进入了冬天还是冰封期并不可怕,略显稳定的盘面下依然暗潮涌动,这是一个最好的时代也是一个最坏的时代,最重要的是这依然是一个充满活力的市场。

  更重要的是你在哪个位置上,你选择以什么样的姿势去面对她:道、法、术、器、势。大道至简。

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